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The “mapping” of the enormous territory outlined in this heading reveals that it is all marked with practically the same ancestral haplotype, which is about 4,500 - 4,700 years “old”. An exception is presented only in the Balkans (Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Bosnia), where the common ancestor is significantly more ancient, about 11,650±1,550 years bp. This will be explored below in this section. Another exception is presented by Irish, Scottish and Swedish R1a1 populations, which have a significantly “younger” common ancestor, some thousands years “younger” compared with those, e.g., of the Russian, the German, and the Poland R1a1 populations. The entire map of base (ancestral) haplotypes and their mutations, as well as “ages” of common ancestors of R1a1 haplotypes in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East show that approximately six thousand years ago bearers of R1a1 haplogroup started to migrate from the Balkans in all directions, spreading their haplotypes. A recent excavation of 4,600 year-old R1a1 haplotypes (Haak et al., 2008) revealed their almost exact closeness to present-day R1a1 haplotypes, as it is shown below.

England and Ireland R1a1 haplotypes

The 57 of 25-marker haplotype series of England origin (YSearch database) contains ten haplotypes which belong to a DYS388=10 series and was analyzed separately. The remaining 47 haplotypes contain 304 mutations compared to the base haplotype shown below, which corresponds to 4,125±475 years to a common ancestor in the 95% confidence interval. The respective haplotype tree is shown in Fig. 3.

Figure 3. The 25-marker haplotype tree for England, haplogroup R1a1. The 57-haplotype tree was composed from data of YSearch database. A seven-haplotype branch at the bottom (between 035 and 043) plus haplotypes 001, 006 and 030 is a family of haplotypes with DYS388=10 (all other mostly have DYS388=12, in one case DYS388=14, haplotype 031).

The 52 of 25-marker haplotype series of Ireland origin (YSearch database) contains 12 haplotypes which belong to a DYS388=10 distinct series (Fig. 4), and was analyzed separately. The remaining 40 haplotypes contain 244 mutations compared to the base haplotype, shown below, which corresponds to 3,850±460 years to a common ancestor.

Figure 4. The 25-marker haplotype tree of haplogroup R1a1 for Ireland. The 52-haplotype tree was composed from the YSearch database. A twelve-haplotype branch at the bottom left (between 014 and 045) is a family of haplotype with DYS388=10 (all others primarily have DYS388=12, in two cases DYS388=14, haplotypes 003 and 034). Thus, R1a1 haplotypes sampled on the British Isles point at English and Irish common ancestors who lived 4,125±475 and 3,850±460 years ago. The English base (ancestral) haplotype is as follows

13-25-15-10-11-14-12-12-10-13-11-30-15-9-10-11-11-24-14-20-32-12-15-15-16

and the Irish one:

13-25-15-11-11-14-12-12-10-13-11-30-15-9-10-11-11-23-14-20-32-12-15-15-16

An apparent difference in two alleles between the British and Irish ancestral haplotypes is in fact fairly insignificant, since the respective alleles are equal to 10.51 and 10.73, and 23.98 and 23.55, respectively. Hence, their ancestral haplotypes are practically the same, within approximately one mutational difference.

A DYS388=10 subfamily of North-Western European R1a1 haplotypes

About 20% of both English and Irish haplotypes have a mutated allele in eighth position in the FTDNA format (DYS388=12à10), with a common ancestor of that population who lived 3,575±450 years ago (172 mutations in 30 of 25-marker haplotypes with DYS388=10). 61 of these haplotypes were pooled from a number of European populations (Fig. 5), and the tree splits into a relatively younger branch on the left, and the “older” branch on the lower right-hand side.

Figure 5. The 25-marker haplotype tree for 61 North West-European haplotypes with DYS388 = 10. The haplotypes were collected from YSearch database.

This DYS388=10 mutation is observed only in northern and western Europe, mainly in England, Ireland, Norway, and to a much lesser degree in Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands and Germany. In areas further east and south that mutation is practically absent. 31 haplotypes on the left-hand side and on the top of the tree (Fig. 5) contain collectively 86 mutations from the base haplotype

13-25-15-10-11-14-12-10-10-13-11-30-15-9-10-11-11-25-14-19-32-12-14-14-17

which corresponds to 1625±240 years to the common ancestor. It is a rather recent common ancestor, who lived in the middle of the first millennium AD. The closeness of the branch to the trunk of the tree (Fig. 5) also points to the rather recent origin of the lineage.

The older 30-haplotype branch in the tree provides with the following base DYS388=10 haplotype:

13-25-16-10-11-14-12-10-10-13-11-30-15-9-10-11-11-24-14-19-32-12-14-15-16

All the 30 haplotypes contain 172 mutations, which gives 3575±450 years to the common ancestor. These two DYS388=10 base haplotypes differ from each other by less than four mutations, which brings their common ancestor to about 3500 ybp. It is very likely that it is the same common ancestor as that of the right-hand branch in Fig. 5. The upper, “older” base haplotype differs by six mutations on average from DYS388=12 base haplotypes from the same area (see above the English and Irish R1a1 base haplotypes). This brings their common ancestor in R1a1 haplogroup to about 5,700±600 ybp. This common ancestor of both DYS388=12 and DYS388=10 populations lived presumably in the Balkans (see below), for almost two thousand years before bearers of that mutation arrived to northern and western Europe some 4000 ybp (DYS388=12) and about 3600 ybp (DYS388=10) . This mutation was continuing to pass over the generations up to the present time.

Scotland R1a1 haplotypes

R1a1 haplotypes in Scotland have the same ancestral haplotype as those in England and Ireland:

13-25-15-11-11-14-12-12-10-13-11-30-15-9-10-11-11-24-14-20-32-12-15-15-16

29 of 25-marker haplotypes contained 164 mutations, which gives 3550±450 years to the common ancestor.

Germany R1a1 haplotypes

A 67-haplotype series in Germany revealed the following ancestral haplotype:

13-25-16-10-11-14-12-12-10-13-11-30-15-9-10-11-11-24-14-20-32-12-15-15-16

There is an apparent mutation in the third allele from the left (in bold) compared with the Isles ancestral R1a1 haplotypes, however, it equals to 15.48 for England, 15.33 for Ireland, 15.26 for Scotland, and 15.84 for Germany, that is pretty close to each other. All 67 of 25-marker haplotypes contain 488 mutations, that is 0.291±0.013 mutations per marker on average. It corresponds to 4,700±520 years from a common ancestor in the German territory. These results are supported by the very recent data on excavation of R1a (SNP SRY10831.2) and presumably R1a1 haplotypes near Eulau, Germany (Haak et al., 2008). The 4,600 old haplotypes follow with dating performed using strontium isotope analysis:

13(14)-25-16-11-11-14-X-Y-10-13-Z-30-15

These very closely resemble the above R1a1 ancestral haplotype in Germany both in the structure and in the dating (4,700±520 and 4,600 ybp).

Norway and Sweden R1a1 haplotypes

Norwegian and Swedish ancestral R1a1 haplotypes are principally the same, and both look exactly as the German 25-marker ancestral haplotype. Their 16-and 19-haplotype sets (after DYS388=10 haplotypes were removed, five and one, respectively) contain on average 0.218±0.023 and 0.242±0.023 mutations per marker, respectively, which give 3,375±490 and 3,825±520 years to their common ancestors. This is likely the same time span within the error margin.

Poland, Czech, and Slovak R1a1 haplotypes

These ancestral haplotypes are very similar to each other, having only one insignificant deviation in DYS439 (shown in bold), which is 10.43 in the Polish base haplotype of 44 haplotypes total.

13-25-16-10-11-14-12-12-10-13-11-30-16-9-10-11-11-23-14-20-32-12-15-15-16

and 10.63 in Czech and Slovakian combined base haplotype of 27 haplotypes total.

13-25-16-10-11-14-12-12-11-13-11-30-16-9-10-11-11-23-14-20-32-12-15-15-16

The difference in these markers is 0.2 mutations only, the alleles are just rounded up in opposite directions. These haplotypes have 310 mutations in the 44 Polish haplotypes, and 175 mutations in 27 Czechoslovak haplotypes, and results in 0.282±0.016 and 0.259±0.020 mutations per marker on average in their 25-marker haplotypes, which results in 4,550±520 and 4,125±430 years from their common ancestors, respectively.

The European R1a1 haplogroup (small haplotype sets across Europe)

Many countries are represented with just a few haplotypes in data bases. I have collected 36 of 25-marker R1a1 haplotypes provided into YSearch database by descendants referring to Denmark, Netherlands, Switzerland, Iceland, Belgium, France, Italy, Lithuania, Romania, Albania, Montenegro, Slovenia, Croatia, Spain, Greece, Bulgaria and Moldavia. The respective haplotype tree is shown in Fig. 6.

Figure 6. The 25-marker haplotype tree for various European countries (small series of haplotypes from Denmark, Netherlands, Switzerland, Iceland, Belgium, France, Italy, Lithuania, Romania, Albania, Montenegro, Slovenia, Croatia, Spain, Greece, Bulgaria and Moldavia), haplogroup R1a1. The 36-haplotype tree was composed from YSearch database.

The tree does not show any noticeable anomalies and points at just one common ancestor for all 36 individuals, who had the following base haplotype:

13-25-16-10-11-14-12-12-10-13-11-30-15-9-10-11-11-24-14-20-32-12-15-15-16

The ancestral haplotype match is exactly the same as those in Germany, Russia (see below), and has quite insignificant deviations from all other ancestral haplotypes considered above, within fractions of mutational differences. All the 36 individuals have 248 mutations in their 25-marker haplotypes, which corresponds to 4,425±520 years to the common ancestor. This is quite a common value for European R1a1 population.

Russia and Ukraine R1a1 haplotypes

The haplotype tree containing 58 of 25-marker haplotypes collected over 10 time zones from the Western Ukraine to the Pacific Ocean and from the northern tundra to Central Asia (Tadzhikistan and Kirgizstan) is shown in Fig. 7.

Figure 7. The 25-marker haplotype tree for Russia and Ukraine, haplogroup R1a1. The 58-haplotype tree was composed from data of YSearch database.

The ancestral (base) haplotype for the haplotype tree is

13-25-16-10-11-14-12-12-10-13-11-30-15-9-10-11-11-24-14-20-32-12-15-15-16

It is exactly the same ancestral haplotype as that in Germany, and it has only one insignificant deviation from the ancestral haplotype in England, which has the third allele (DYS19) 15.48, which in Russia/Ukraine it is 15.84. There are similar insignificant deviations with the Polish and Czechoslovakian base haplotypes, at DYS458 and DYS447, respectively, within 0.2-0.5 mutations. This points at a mutational difference between their common ancestors of only few generations. All 58 haplotypes contain 423 mutations from the base haplotype, that is 0.292±0.014 mutations per marker or 4,725±520 years from a common ancestor. The degree of asymmetry of this series of haplotypes is exactly 0.50, and does not affect the calculations.

R1a1 haplotypes of individuals who considered themselves of Ukrainian and Russian origin, present a practically random mix in the haplotype tree. The haplotype tree contains two local Central Asian haplotypes (a Tadzhik and a Kyrgyz, haplotypes 133 and 127, respectively), as well as a local of a Caucasian Mountains Karachaev tribe (haplotype 166), though the male ancestry of the last one is unknown. They did not show any unusual deviations from other R1a1 haplotypes. Apparently, they are derived from the same common ancestor as are all other individuals of the set.

The literature frequently refers to a statement that R1a1-M17 originated from a “refuge” in the present Ukraine about 15,000 years ago, following the Last Glacial Maximum. This statement was never substantiated by any actual data related to haplotypes and haplogroups. It is just carrying around through a relay of references to references. The oldest one is apparently of Semino et al. (2000) which states that “this scenario is … supported by the finding that the maximum variation for microsatellites linked to Eu19 [R1a1] is found in Ukraine” (ref. Santachiara-Benerecetti, unpublished data). Now we know that this statement is incorrect. No calculations were provided in (Semino et al, 2000) or elsewhere which would explain the dating of 15,000 years.

Then, a paper of Wells et al. (2001) states “M17, a descendant of M173, is apparently much younger, with an inferred age of ~ 15,000 years”. No calculations are provided. The subsequent sentence in the paper says – “It must be noted that these age estimates are dependent on many, possibly invalid, assumptions about mutational processes and population structure”. This sentence is turned out to be valid in a sense that the estimate was inaccurate and elevated by about 300%.

India R1a1 haplotypes

The YSearch database contains 22 of 25-marker R1a1 haplotypes from India, including a few haplotypes from Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Their ancestral haplotype follows:

13-25-16-10-11-14-12-12-10-13-11-30-16-9-10-11-11-24-14-20-32-12-15-15-16

The only one apparent deviation in DYS458 (shown in bold) is related to an average alleles equal to 16.05 in Indian haplotypes, and 15.28 in Russian ones. All 22 Indian R1a1 haplotypes contain 148 mutations, that is 0.269±0.022 mutations per marker. It is close to 0.292±0.014 mutations per marker in the Russian haplotypes and corresponds to 4,300±560 years from a common ancestor of the Indian haplotypes, compared to 4,725±520 years for the ancient “Russian” TSCA.

Figure 8. The 25-marker haplotype tree for India, Pakistan and Sri-Lanka, haplogroup R1a1. The 22-haplotype tree was composed from data of YSearch database.

Archaeological studies have been conducted since the 1990’s in the South Ural’s Arkaim settlement and have revealed that the settlement was abandoned 3,600 years ago. The population apparently moved to Northern India. That population belonged to Andronovo archaeological culture. Excavations of some sites of Andronovo culture showed that eight inhabitants out of nine shared R1a1 haplogroup and haplotypes (Bouakaze et al., 2007) as follows, dating between 5,500 and 1,800 years bp:

13-25-16-11-11-14-X-Y-Z-14-11-32

In this example, alleles which have not been deciphered are replaced with letters. One can see that the ancient R1a1 haplotype closely resembles the Russian (as well as the other R1a1) ancestral haplotypes. This provides rather strong evidence that the R1a1 tribe migrated from Europe to the East between 5,000 and 3,600 years bp. The pattern of this migration is exhibited as follows: 1) the descendants who live today share a common ancestor of 4,725±520 years prior, 2) the Andronovo archaeological complex of cultures in North Kazakhstan and South and Western Siberia dates 4,300 to 3,500 years bp, and it revealed several R1a1 excavated haplogroups (see above), 3) they reach to South Ural some 4,000 years bp, is where they built Arkaim, Sintashta (contemporary names) and the so-called “a country of towns” on South Ural around 3,800 ybp, 4) by 3,600 ybp they abandoned the area and moved to India under the name of Aryans. The Indian R1a1 common ancestor of 4,300±560 years bp chronologically corresponds to the events. Currently, some 16% of Indian population, that is about 100 millions males, and the majority of the upper castes bear R1a1 haplogroup (Sengupta et al, 2006; Sharma et al, 2009).

R1a1 haplotypes, the Arabian peninsula

Sixteen R1a1 10-marker haplotypes from Qatar and United Arab Emirates have been recently published (Cadenas et al., 2008). They split into two branches, with base haplotypes

13-25-15-11-11-14-X-Y-10-13-11-30

13-25-16-11-11-14-X-Y-10-13-11-31

which differ by only one mutation, marked in bold. The first haplotype is the base one for seven haplotypes with 13 mutations in them, on average 0.186±0.052 mutations per marker, which gives 2,300±680 years to a common ancestor. The second haplotype is the base one for nine haplotypes with 26 mutations, an average 0.289±0.057 mutations per marker or 3,750±825 years to a common ancestor. Since a common ancestor of R1a1 haplotypes in Armenia and Anatolia lived 4,500±1,040 and 3,700±550 years bp, respectively (Klyosov, 2008b), it does not conflict with 3,750±825 years bp in the Arabian peninsula.

The Balkan ancient branch: the oldest trace of R1a1 haplogroup?

A series of 67 haplotypes of haplogroup R1a1 from the Balkans was published (Barac et al., 2003a, 2003b; Pericic et al., 2005). They were presented in a 9-marker format only. The respective haplotype tree is shown in Fig. 9

Figure 9. The 9-marker haplotype tree for the Balkans, haplogroup R1a1. The 67-haplotype tree was composed from data published (Barac et al., 2003a, 2003b; Pericic et al., 2005).

One can see a remarkable branch on the left-hand side of the tree which stands out as an “extended and fluffy” one. These are typically features of a very old branch compared with others on the same tree. Also, a common feature of ancient haplotype trees is that they are typically “heterogeneous” ones and consist of a number of branches.

The tree in Fig. 9.includes a rather small branch of twelve haplotypes on top of the tree, which contains only 14 mutations. This results in 0.130±0.035 mutations per marker, or 1,850±530 years to a common ancestor. Its base haplotype

13-25-16-10-11-14-X-Y-Z-13-11-30

is exactly the same as that in Russia and Germany.

The wide 27-haplotype branch on the right contains 0.280±0.034 mutations per marker, which is rather typical for R1a1 haplotypes in Europe. It gives typical in kind 4,350±680 years to a common ancestor of the branch. Its base haplotype

13-25-16-11-11-14-X-Y-Z-13-11-30

is again typical for Eastern European R1a1 base haplotypes, in which the fourth marker (DYS391) often fluctuates between 10 and 11. Of 44 Russian-Ukrainian haplotypes (Fig. 7), 23 haplotype have “10”, and 21 have “11” in that locus. In 67 German haplotypes, discussed above, 43 haplotypes have “10”, 23 have “11” and one has “12”. Hence, the Balkan haplotypes from this branch are more close to the Russian haplotypes than to German ones.

The “extended and fluffy” 13-haplotype branch on the left contains the following haplotypes:

13 24 16 12 14 15 13 11 31

12 24 16 10 12 15 13 13 29

12 24 15 11 12 15 13 13 29

14 24 16 11 11 15 15 11 32

13 23 14 10 13 17 13 11 31

13 24 14 11 11 11 13 13 29

13 25 15 9 11 14 13 11 31

13 25 15 11 11 15 12 11 29

12 22 15 10 15 17 14 11 30

14 25 15 10 11 15 13 11 29

13 25 15 10 12 14 13 11 29

13 26 15 10 11 15 13 11 29

13 23 15 10 13 14 12 11 28

The set does not contain a haplotype which can be defined as a base. This is because common ancestor lived too long ago, and all haplotypes of his descendants living today are extensively mutated. In order to determine when that common ancestor lived, we have employed three different approaches, described in the preceding paper (Part 1), namely the “linear” method with the correction for reverse mutations, the ASD method based on a deduced base (ancestral) haplotype, and the permutational ASD method (no base haplotype considered). The linear method gave the following deduced base haplotype, an alleged one for a common ancestor of those 13 individuals from Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Macedonia:

13-24-15-10-12-15-X-Y-Z-13-11-29

The bold notations identify deviations from typical ancestral (base) East-European haplotypes. The third allele (DYS19) is identical to the Atlantic and Scandinavian R1a1 base haplotypes. All 13 haplotypes contain 70 mutations from this base haplotype, which gives 0.598±0.071 mutations on average per marker, and results in 11,425±1,780 years from a common ancestor.

The “quadratic method” (ASD) gives the following “base haplotype” (the unknown alleles are eliminated here, and the last allele is presented as the DYS389-2 notation)

12.92 – 24.15 – 15.08 – 10.38 – 12.08 – 14.77 – 13.08 – 11.46 – 16.62

A sum of square deviations from the above haplotype results in 103 mutations total, including reverse mutations “hidden” in the linear method. Seventy “observed” mutations in the linear method amount to only 68% of the “actual” mutations including reverse mutations. Since all 13 haplotypes contain 117 markers, the average number of mutations per marker is 0.880±0.081, which corresponds to 0.880/0.00189 = 466±62 generations or 11,650±1,550 years to a common ancestor. 0.00189 is the mutation rate (in mutations per marker per generation) for the given 9-marker haplotypes (the preceding paper, Part 1).

A calculation of 11,650±1,550 years to a common ancestor is practically the same as 11,425±1,780 years, obtained with linear method and corrected for reverse mutations.

The all-permutation “quadratic” method (Adamov & Klyosov, 2008) gives 2,680 as a sum of all square differences in all permutations between alleles. When divided by N2 (N = number of haplotypes, that is 13), by 9 (number of markers in haplotype), and by 2 (since deviation were both “up” and “down”), we obtain an average number of mutations per marker equal to 0.881. It is near exactly equal to 0.880 obtained by the quadratic method above. Naturally, it gives again 0.881/0.00189 = 466±62 generations or 11,650±1,550 years to a common ancestor of the R1a1 group in the Balkans. The obtained data suggest that the first bearers of R1a1 haplogroup lived in the Balkans (Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Macedonia) between 10 and 13 thousand years bp. It is unknown whether R1a1 appeared in the Balkans, presumably from R1 or R1a, or arrived from a yet unknown location. It was found (Klyosov, 2008a) that haplogroup R1b appeared about 16,000 years bp, apparently in Asia. The data shown above suggests that only about 6,000-5,000 years bp bearers of R1a1 began to mobilize and migrate to the west toward the Atlantics, to the north toward the Baltic Sea and Scandinavia, to the east to the Russian plains and steppes, to the south to Asia Minor, the Middle East, and far south to the Arabian Sea. All of those local R1a1 haplotypes point at their common ancestors who lived around 4,800 to 4,500 years bp. On their way through the Russian plains and steppes the R1a1 tribe presumably sat up the Kurgan archaeological culture, apparently domesticated the horse, advanced to Central Asia and left the “Aryan population” which dated about 4,500 years bp. They then moved to the Ural mountains about 4,000 years bp and migrated to India as the Aryans circa 3,600-3,500 years bp. Presently, 16% of the male Indian population, or approximately 100 million people, bear R1a1 haplogroup’s SNP mutation, with their common ancestor of 4,300±560 years bp, of times back to the Andronovo archaeological culture and the Aryans in the Russian plains and steppes . The current Indian R1a1 haplotypes are practically indistinguishable from Russian, Ukrainian, and Central Asian R1a1 haplotypes, as well as from many West and Central European R1a1 haplotypes. These populations speak languages of the Indo-European language family.

The next section points at some trails of R1a1 in India, an “Aryan trail”.

The Chenchu R1a1 haplotypes

The Chenchus, an australoid tribal group from southern India, bear R1a1 haplogroup in 11 of 41 individuals tested (or 27% of total) (Kivisild et al., 2003). It is tempting to associate this with the Aryan influx into India which allegedly occurred some 3,600-3,500 years bp. However, questionable calculations of time spans to a common ancestor of R1a1 in India (Kivisild et al., 2003; Sengupta et al., 2006; Sahoo et al, 2006) using methods of population genetics rather than those of DNA genealogy have precluded an objective and balanced discussion of the events and their consequences.

Eleven R1a1 haplotypes of the Chenchus (Kivisild et al., 2003) do not provide good statistics; however, they can allow a reasonable estimate of a time span to a common ancestor for these 11 individuals. Logically, if these haplotypes are more or less identical, with just a few mutations in them, a common ancestor would likely have lived within a thousand or two thousands of years bp. Conversely, if these haplotypes are all mutated, and there is no base (ancestral) haplotype among them, a common ancestor lived thousands years bp. Even two base (identical) haplotypes among 11 would tentatively give ln(11/2)/0.0088 = 194 generations, which, corrected to back mutations, would result in 240 generations, or 6,000 years to a common ancestor, with a certain margin of error. If eleven of the 6-marker haplotypes are all mutated, it would mean that a common ancestor lived apparently earlier than 6 thousand years bp. Hence, even with such a poor set of haplotypes one can obtain useful and meaningful information.

Eleven Chenchu haplotypes have as many as seven identical (base) 6-marker haplotypes (in the format of DYS 19-388-290-391-392-393, commonly employed in earlier scientific publications):

16-12-24-11-11-13

They are practically the same as those common East European ancestral haplotypes considered above, if presented in the same 6-marker format:

16-12-25-11(10)-11-13

Actually, the author of this study, himself a Slav (haplotype R1a1) has the “Chenchu” base 6-marker haplotype.

These identical haplotypes are represented by a “comb” in Fig. 10. If all seven identical haplotypes are derived from the same common ancestor as the other four mutated haplotypes, the common ancestor would have lived on average of only 51 generations bp, or less than 1300 years ago [ln(11/7)/0.0088 = 51], with a certain margin of error (see estimates below). In fact, the Chenchu R1a1 haplotypes represent two lineages, one 3,200±1,900 years old and the other only 350±350 years old, starting from around the 17th century AD. The tree in Fig. 10 shows these two lineages.

Figure 10. The 6-marker haplotype tree for the South Indian tribe Chenchu, haplogroup R1a1. The 11-haplotype tree was composed from data of Kivisild et al. (2003).

A quantitative description of these two lineages is as follows. Despite the 11-haplotype series contain 7 identical haplotypes, which – in case of one common ancestor for the series – would have point at 51 generations (with a proper margin of error) from a common ancestor, the same 11 haplotypes contain 9 mutations from the above base haplotype. The linear method gives 9/11/0.0088 = 93 generations to a common ancestor (both figures without a correction for back mutations). Because there is a significant mismatch between these 51 and 93 generations, one can conclude that the 11 haplotypes descended from more than one common ancestor. Clearly, the Chenchu R1a1 haplotype set points to a minimum of two common ancestors, which is confirmed by the haplotype tree (Fig. 10). A recent branch includes 8 haplotypes, seven being base haplotypes, and one with only one mutation. The older branch, contains three haplotypes containing three mutations from their base haplotype:

15-12-25-10-11-13

The recent branch results in ln(8/7)/0.0088 = 15 generations (by the logarithmic method), and 1/8/0.0088 = 14 generations (the linear method) from the residual seven base haplotypes and a number of mutations (just one), respectively. It shows a good fit between the two estimates. This confirms that a single common ancestor for 8 individuals of the eleven lived only about 350±350 years bp, around the 17th century. The old branch of haplotypes points at a common ancestor who lived 3/3/0.0088 = 114±67 generations BP, or 3,200±1,900 years bp with a correction for back mutations.

Considering that the Aryan (R1a1) wave to northern India took place about 3,600-3,500 years bp, it is quite plausible to refer the appearance of R1a1 in the Chenchu by 3,200±1,900 ybp to the Aryans.

The origins of the influx of Chenchu R1a1 haplotypes around the 17th century are found in this passage excerpted from (Kivisild et al., 2003): “Chenchus were first described as shy hunter-gatherers by the Mohammedan army in 1694”.

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