Колико ће да буде ефикасна вакцинација против грипа у сезони 2017/18?

[александар живаљев]

Preporučujem sledeći članak: Sullivan SG et al. Low interim influenza vaccine effectiveness, Australia, 1 May to 24 September 2017.  Eurosurveillance 22, 17-00707 (2017); http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.43.17-00707

Suština je sledeća: U sezoni gripa koja se završava na južnoj hemisferi, a očekuje se kod nas, efektivnost vakcine protiv gripa bila je 33%. Zaštita od A(H3) bila je slaba (10%), a znatno bolja je bila za A(H1)pdm09 (50%) i za B (57%).

Prilažem i deo originalnog teksta.

Dakle, uspešnost vakcinacije predstojeće sezone zavisiće od toga koji tip virusa influence bude dominirao.

 

Vaccines effectiveness estimates

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Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated following a case–control test-negative design, where VE is estimated from the odds ratio (OR) comparing the odds of vaccination among test-positive and test-negative patients. The limitations of this design have been discussed at length [10,11]. Estimates were adjusted for week of specimen collection (cubic spline with 4 knots), and age group (spline with knots at 5, 15, 35, 65, 75 years).

VE estimates are shown in Table 2. Overall VE was 33% (95%CI: 17 to 46). This estimate appeared to be skewed by the very low estimate for A(H3), which was 10% (95%CI: -16 to 31), whereas estimates were higher for A(H1)pdm09 (VE: 50%; 95%CI: 8 to 74) and B (VE: 57%; 95%CI: 41 to 69). VE for A(H3) 3C.2a viruses was 5% (95%CI: -51 to 40), while the estimate for 3C.2a1 was 19% (95%CI: -42 to 55). For patients vaccinated in the 2016 season, VE for A(H3) was 3–4% regardless of whether they were also vaccinated in 2017. In contrast, the highest VE point estimates for influenza B were observed among those vaccinated in both 2016 and 2017.

 

[obi-wan]

A kol`ko je koji opasan od njih?